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Als de frequentie of lengte van droge periodes toeneemt, zoals aangegeven wordt in twee van de vier KNMI\u201914 scenario\u2019s, kan de bodem en de strooisellaag op de bodem vaker uitdrogen. In die situaties is het risico op natuurbranden hoog. Het uiteindelijke natuurbrandrisico is afhankelijk van het soort begroeiing (heide, naaldbos), het aantal en type gebruikers (wandelaars, kampeerders) en de weersomstandigheden (droogte, wind).\n\nWat is het gevaar Het gevaar is dat mensen \u2013 wandelaars, fietsers, campinggasten \u2013 verrast worden door het vuur en worden ingesloten. Een natuurbrand kan zich in een droge periode snel en onvoorspelbaar ontwikkelen. De bestrijding is lastig, omdat bluswater vaak van elders moet worden aangevoerd en de wind de brand aanwakkert. De meeste natuurbranden ontstaan door menselijke onvoorzichtigheid (weggegooide sigaret, vuurkorven, barbecues en dergelijke) of kwaadwillendheid (brandstichting). Soms is er sprake van natuurinvloeden zoals blikseminslag. 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Om de verschillen in risico's op droogtestress door klimaatverandering inzichtelijk te maken is de berekening uitgevoerd voor grasland. Voor dit gewas wordt een indicatie gegeven van de reductie in gewasopbrengst. Het daadwerkelijke opbrengstverlies kan dus afwijken.\n\nGevolgen voor de landbouw\nDe gewaskeuze in de landbouw (zie de kaartlaag landbouwgebieden) is afgestemd op het klimaat: variëteiten moeten passen bij lokale fysische omstandigheden. De bedrijfsvoering is gericht op het oplossen van knelpunten. Bemesting of drainage is daar een voorbeeld van. Er is in het huidige klimaat al sprake van droogtestress en zuurstofstress. Door klimaatverandering neemt het risico toe. Het gevolg voor de landbouw kan zijn dat er steeds vaker gekozen wordt voor andere variëteiten of zelfs voor andere gewassen.\n\nGevolgen voor de natuur\nKlimaatverandering verstoort de omstandigheden, die door de eeuwen heen tot een bepaald natuurtype hebben geleid (zie de kaartlaag natuurgebieden). 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